Summary of the Global Circulation Model Selection

2022-08-30

Goal

Determine the four most centrally located global circulation model (GCM) across four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)(126, 245, 370 and 585) at the 2081-2100 time stamp. The four most common centrally located GCM will be used in as the inputs for the larger project.

Parameters

Models were evaluated using a local deployment of the GCM compareR shiny application.

https://github.com/marquetlab/GCM_compareR

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/2041-210X.13360

  1. CMIP version: CMIP6

  2. Climate Change Scenario:

    1. year: 2081-2100 - this year was choose as it will represent the largest amount of divergence between the models.

    2. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP): This is a measure of emission intensity, all four options were evaluated.

  3. General Circulation Models: all available models were considered

  4. Type of Comparison

    1. Bio1 - Annual Mean Temperature

    2. Bio2 - Annual Precipitation

  5. Define analysis area

    1. created a generous retangle of CONUS

    2. xmin : -125.5812, xmax : -69.46746, ymin : 23.85369, ymax : 47.87214

Difference method

The following steps were used to generate a single measure for evaluation.

  1. Difference from mean.
  1. Normal the difference from mean
  1. Combine the noralized values

The result is a single value that weight temperature and precipitation evenly.

Summary

By combining the individual evaluations at each Shared Socioeconomic Pathway we are able to evaluate which GCMs are nearest to the average across all ssp pathways.

The top for models

CNRM.ESM2.1 MIROC6 MIROC.ES2L CNRM.CM6.1

Are the current suggestion for use as the ensemble dataset for creating a generalized prediction of the future maximim temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation at varies NPGS sites.

Individual Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

SSP1

The following GCM are present at the SSP1 category.

This is a plot of the normalized difference from the mean for all GCMs. Ensemble represents the mean of all temperature and precipitation values.

SSP2

The following GCM are present at the SSP1 category.

This is a plot of the normalized difference from the mean for all GCMs. Ensemble represents the mean of all temperature and precipitation values.

SSP3

The following GCM are present at the SSP1 category.

This is a plot of the normalized difference from the mean for all GCMs. Ensemble represents the mean of all temperature and precipitation values.

SSP5

The following GCM are present at the SSP1 category.

This is a plot of the normalized difference from the mean for all GCMs. Ensemble represents the mean of all temperature and precipitation values.